Progesterone level on the day of hCG administration in relation to the pregnancy rates of patients undergoing assisted reproduction techniques

OBJECTIVE To evaluate the predictive capacity for pregnancy of the progesterone level on the day of administering human chorionic gonadotropin, in women submitted to assisted reproductive techniques. METHODS An observational study with 914 women submitted to assisted reproductive techniques from August 2014 to June 2016. RESULTS Total pregnancy rate was 34.58%; in that, the pregnancy rate in women <35 years, between 35 and 38, and >38 years was, respectively, 42.3%, 38.7% and 16.1% (p<0.001). For embryo transfer in the same cycle, and progesterone of 1.3ng/dL, sensitivity was 4.78%, specificity, 84.18%, accuracy, 56.72%, positive likelihood ratio of 0.3019, and negative likelihood ratio of 1.1312, with receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.46 (95%CI: 0.42-0.49). CONCLUSION The progesterone level on the day of administering human chorionic gonadotropin of 1.3ng/dL differs from that empirically adopted at the study site (1.7ng/dL), and has a better predictive capacity for pregnancy in the patients studied. However, the low sensitivity of this examination raises questions about its real importance.